Daily USD Impact

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Daily USD Impact — September 11, 2026

September 11, 2026

Market regimeinflation-sensitive / post-CPI, pre-FOMC

BLS reported August CPI up 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.4% over the year. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting is now the next major U.S. policy catalyst, while EIA's higher oil outlook keeps energy-driven headline inflation risk in focus.

high importancePrimary-source verified

August CPI rose 0.4% monthly; core CPI rose 0.3%

BLS released August CPI on September 11 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The all-items CPI increased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and 3.4% over the year before seasonal adjustment. The index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% monthly and 2.4% over the year.

Why it matters: Headline annual inflation held at July's 3.4% rate while core annual inflation eased from 2.5% to 2.4%. The monthly core increase rose from 0.2% in July to 0.3% in August, leaving the policy interpretation dependent on the component mix and the Federal Reserve's reaction function.

DXYUSDU.S. ratesS&P 500NasdaqXAUUSD

Sources:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

high importancePrimary-source verified

EIA's September outlook keeps energy inflation risk elevated

EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook raised its Brent crude spot-price projection for the second half of 2026 and highlighted low U.S. distillate inventories, supporting continued attention to energy-driven inflation risk.

Why it matters: Energy can move headline inflation quickly. Oil developments therefore remain relevant for inflation expectations and rates even after the August CPI release.

WTIBrentU.S. ratesS&P 500

Sources:U.S. Energy Information Administration

high importancePrimary-source verified

FOMC meeting on September 15–16 is the next major policy catalyst

The Federal Reserve calendar confirms the FOMC meeting for September 15–16. The meeting begins four calendar days after the September 11 CPI release.

Why it matters: The decision and forward guidance can change expected U.S. policy rates, Treasury yields, and the dollar, with cross-asset effects that depend on positioning and growth expectations.

FedU.S. ratesDXYEURUSDS&P 500

Sources:Federal Reserve

medium importancePrimary-source verified

Gold remains sensitive to rates, the dollar, and macro uncertainty

World Gold Council September commentary continues to highlight structural and tactical drivers of gold demand, including investor flows and central-bank demand amid volatile macro conditions.

Why it matters: Gold can react differently to inflation depending on the accompanying move in real yields and the dollar. The CPI outcome therefore should not be read as a standalone directional signal for bullion.

XAUUSDDXYBTCUSD

Sources:World Gold Council

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Weekly synthesis

Connect the news to the score

The seven-day USD calendar is led by Sep 4 payrolls, with Sep 1 JOLTS, Sep 2 Beige Book, Sep 3 revised productivity data, and scheduled Fed remarks ahead of it. July PCE was released on Aug 26, not Aug 31. Treasury's current schedule distinguishes Aug 31 bill auctions from month-end settlements. July JOLTS showed job openings little changed at 7.3 million, with hires and total separations at 5.1 million. EIA's September 2 petroleum report and BLS's September 4 Employment Situation are the next scheduled tests. An August 31 Federal Reserve IFDP paper provides structural context on uncertainty, intermediary constraints, and the dollar. Near‑term USD movers: BLS Employment Situation (Aug) on Sep 4; Treasury starts larger long‑end buybacks effective Sep 9; EIA reports a 4.5 million‑barrel weekly commercial crude draw. Labor data, Treasury liquidity support, and mixed petroleum balances are the primary rate‑ and inflation‑sensitive signals. Beige Book (Sep 2) shows uneven growth, persistent service-sector demand and pockets of price pressure; Fed posts a Sep 3 speech by Governor Waller. Near-term market risks: BLS Employment Situation (Sep 4) and Treasury long‑end buybacks start (Sep 9); PPI follows Sep 10. Data could meaningfully shift rate expectations, USD and long-end yields in coming days. August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, participation edged up to 61.6%, and average hourly earnings increased 0.3% on the month and 3.1% over the year. Treasury's larger long-end buybacks from September 9 and EIA's latest oil data remain the main secondary drivers for rates, liquidity, inflation expectations, and the USD. The completed-Friday USD Impact Score was −0.71, remaining in a soft dollar regime.

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Event-driven research

Important Catalyst Briefs

September 11, 2026Verified outcomeBLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2026 — released — Verified OutcomeSeptember 11, 2026Pre-event analysisBLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2026 — What to WatchSeptember 9, 2026Pre-event analysisTreasury increases long-end liquidity-support buybacks — effective Sept 9, 2026 — What to WatchSeptember 4, 2026Verified outcomeBLS Employment Situation for August 2026 — released — Verified OutcomeSeptember 4, 2026Pre-event analysisBLS Employment Situation (August 2026) — scheduled release — What to WatchAugust 26, 2026Verified outcomeJuly 2026 PCE — Verified Outcome and USD Transmission ChannelsAugust 26, 2026Pre-event analysisBEA Personal Income and Outlays (July) and GDP second estimate (Q2) — What to WatchAugust 12, 2026Pre-event analysisBLS — Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2026 — What to Watch
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Previous editions

September 11, 2026inflation-sensitive / post-CPI, pre-FOMCBLS reported August CPI up 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.4% over the year. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting is now the next major U.S. policy catalyst, while EIA's higher oil outlook keeps energy-driven headline inflation risk in focus.September 10, 2026inflation-sensitive / awaiting CPIAugust producer prices rose 0.4% month over month. EIA reported a 0.4 million-barrel commercial crude draw alongside gasoline and distillate builds. Both reports are released; August CPI remains scheduled for September 11 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.September 9, 2026risk-awareThe next CPI release is September 11 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. August payrolls were already released September 4. Today’s rescheduled Fed Board meeting concerns Reserve Bank advance and discount rates; its notice does not establish a policy change.September 8, 2026transitionNear‑term USD drivers: Treasury’s scheduled increase in long‑end buyback sizes (effective Sep 9) is a confirmed liquidity technical; the coming week contains key U.S. inflation prints (PPI Sep 10, CPI Sep 11) plus the EIA weekly oil report (Sep 10). These releases could move U.S. rate expectations, DXY, and commodity markets. Fed commentary since early September remains the backdrop for market reaction.September 7, 2026risk-aware / rates-sensitiveAugust nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, and AP reported higher Treasury yields and weaker equities after the release. BEA's Q2 second estimate and Treasury's larger long-end buybacks effective September 9 remain important inputs for rates, the dollar, and risk-sensitive assets.September 4, 2026late-cycle / data-drivenAugust nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, participation edged up to 61.6%, and average hourly earnings increased 0.3% on the month and 3.1% over the year. Treasury's larger long-end buybacks from September 9 and EIA's latest oil data remain the main secondary drivers for rates, liquidity, inflation expectations, and the USD.September 3, 2026event-drivenBeige Book (Sep 2) shows uneven growth, persistent service-sector demand and pockets of price pressure; Fed posts a Sep 3 speech by Governor Waller. Near-term market risks: BLS Employment Situation (Sep 4) and Treasury long‑end buybacks start (Sep 9); PPI follows Sep 10. Data could meaningfully shift rate expectations, USD and long-end yields in coming days.September 2, 2026event-drivenNear‑term USD movers: BLS Employment Situation (Aug) on Sep 4; Treasury starts larger long‑end buybacks effective Sep 9; EIA reports a 4.5 million‑barrel weekly commercial crude draw. Labor data, Treasury liquidity support, and mixed petroleum balances are the primary rate‑ and inflation‑sensitive signals.September 1, 2026event-drivenJuly JOLTS showed job openings little changed at 7.3 million, with hires and total separations at 5.1 million. EIA's September 2 petroleum report and BLS's September 4 Employment Situation are the next scheduled tests. An August 31 Federal Reserve IFDP paper provides structural context on uncertainty, intermediary constraints, and the dollar.August 31, 2026transitionThe seven-day USD calendar is led by Sep 4 payrolls, with Sep 1 JOLTS, Sep 2 Beige Book, Sep 3 revised productivity data, and scheduled Fed remarks ahead of it. July PCE was released on Aug 26, not Aug 31. Treasury's current schedule distinguishes Aug 31 bill auctions from month-end settlements.August 28, 2026risk-neutralBEA published Personal Income & Outlays (July) on Aug 26; EIA updated U.S. crude and product stock tables the same day. Watch the BLS Employment Situation on Sep 4 for a near-term, high-impact labor print that can move USD, U.S. rates, and risk assets.August 27, 2026rate-sensitive / data-drivenBEA’s July Personal Income & Outlays (Aug.26) showed headline and core PCE each +0.2% m/m, reinforcing Fed inflation monitoring. EIA updated weekly petroleum stocks (Aug.26). FOMC minutes (Jul.28–29) provide granular committee discussion that informs near‑term policy expectations and term‑premium dynamics.August 26, 2026event-driven / data focusBEA’s Personal Income and Outlays (PCE/core PCE) on 2026-08-26 is the primary near-term USD/rates driver. Jackson Hole Fed remarks (Aug 28) create policy-communication risk. EIA weekly petroleum (Aug 26) and weekly natural gas storage (Aug 27) are energy-data catalysts for oil, gas, gold, and risk appetite.August 25, 2026rangeboundBEA’s Personal Income & Outlays (includes July PCE) due 2026-08-26 and a concentrated Treasury auction calendar (Aug 25–27) are the primary near‑term drivers for USD, U.S. rates and risk assets. Markets will watch PCE for Fed-rate signals and auction demand/settlement flows for term‑premium and liquidity implications.August 24, 2026data-focusedOfficial weekly petroleum stocks (EIA) and BEA’s annual-update timing shape near-term energy and inflation measurement views; Fed statistical releases and Jackson Hole speeches are the primary near-term catalysts for dollar, U.S. rates and risk positioning this week.August 21, 2026data-driven / event-riskThe immediate calendar starts with BLS State Employment and Unemployment for July at 10:00 a.m. ET on August 21. The next concentrated U.S. macro window is August 26, when BEA schedules July Personal Income and Outlays and the second estimate of second-quarter GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET, while EIA's next Weekly Petroleum Status Report is also due that day. The Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins August 27 and runs through August 29.August 20, 2026transitionTreasury's long-end buyback expansion briefly eased yields, but oil-linked inflation concerns pushed the 10-year yield back toward its pre-announcement level on August 20. BLS reported youth unemployment at 9.1%, down from 10.8% a year earlier, while the next concentrated U.S. macro window is August 26, when BEA releases July Personal Income and Outlays and the second estimate of second-quarter GDP.August 19, 2026transitionThe key scheduled U.S. catalysts are the Federal Reserve's July 28–29 FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET and EIA weekly petroleum data on the standard Wednesday release cadence. BLS state employment data for July is scheduled for August 21.August 18, 2026transitionNear-term catalysts inside Aug 18–25: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on Aug 19 may move oil and related FX/commodities; BLS State Employment (SAE) on Aug 21 provides regional payroll detail ahead of national updates. Sources: EIA, BLS.August 17, 2026Event-driven with liquidity and policy sensitivityTreasury's $125 billion August refunding package settles today, concentrating cash and dealer-balance-sheet flows before Federal Reserve industrial-production data on August 18 and the July FOMC minutes on August 19.August 14, 2026Mixed inflation signals with tighter weekly reserve liquidityJuly producer prices were unchanged, but the measure excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.4%. Federal Reserve data showed reserve balances falling by $49.3 billion as the Treasury General Account increased by $56.6 billion, while the August refunding auctions settle on August 17.August 13, 2026Mixed inflation signals with energy disinflation and Treasury supply riskJuly producer prices were unchanged on the month, but the core measure excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.4%. A 17.4 million-barrel weekly increase in U.S. commercial crude inventories softened the energy impulse, while today's 30-year Treasury auction keeps rates and dollar liquidity in focus.August 12, 2026disinflation-at-the-margin / data-dependentJuly CPI rose 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2% and 2.5%. The Wall Street Journal reported a modest post-release decline in the dollar and limited Treasury-yield moves, consistent with an in-line print. PPI on Aug 13 and FOMC minutes on Aug 19 are the next scheduled tests.August 11, 2026risk-on / data-dependentU.S. data risk is front-and-center: July CPI from the BLS is due Aug 12 (UTC Aug 12), with markets parsing core inflation for Fed policy expectations. BEA’s next PCE is Aug 26 (outside the 7-day window). Market attention will also focus on scheduled Fed regional events and staff publications this week. Sources: BLS, BEA, Federal Reserve.August 10, 2026data-driven / rate-sensitiveThe Federal Reserve’s July 29 hold remains the policy anchor. Treasury’s $125 billion quarterly refunding auctions are scheduled for August 11–13, while BLS schedules July CPI for August 12 and July PPI for August 13. The outcomes are not yet known, so cross-asset implications remain conditional.August 7, 2026soft-labor / rate-sensitiveBLS reported that nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 in July, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and May–June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103,000. Labor-force participation was 61.4%, while average hourly earnings were little changed in July and increased 3.2% over the year. The Federal Reserve's July 29 hold remains the policy anchor; July CPI and the next EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report are scheduled for August 12.August 6, 2026event-driven / rate-sensitiveBLS reported that second-quarter nonfarm business productivity rose at a 1.4% annualized rate while unit labor costs increased 1.3%. EIA reported a 2.5 million-barrel commercial crude build alongside gasoline and distillate draws. Treasury’s $125 billion quarterly refunding remains the funding backdrop. The July Employment Situation, H.4.1 reserve data, July CPI and the August 11–13 refunding auctions are the next confirmed USD-sensitive catalysts.August 5, 2026event-driven / liquidity-sensitiveTreasury announced a $125 billion quarterly refunding, including approximately $28.7 billion of new cash, while indicating that nominal coupon and floating-rate-note auction sizes are expected to remain steady for at least the next several quarters. The Federal Reserve’s July 29 hold remains the policy anchor. EIA petroleum inventories, H.4.1 reserve data, payrolls and CPI are the next confirmed USD-sensitive catalysts.August 4, 2026risk-on / oil-driven reprieveFollowing weekend de‑escalation signals from the White House on Iran, oil prices fell and U.S. equities rallied. Treasury yields also declined, reducing one source of dollar support. JOLTS on Aug 4, payrolls on Aug 7 and CPI on Aug 12 could reintroduce volatility for USD, U.S. rates and risk assets.August 3, 2026calm-to-cautiousNo major, market-moving USD/Fed developments were published on the federal agencies’ sites in the prior 36 hours. The highest-probability near-term USD rate/liquidity driver is the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly-refunding announcement and the week’s scheduled bill/note auctions (Aug 3–6 and the formal refunding on Aug 5, 2026). Fed published material in July (minutes, calendar) remains the authoritative background for policy expectations.July 31, 2026firm-labor-costs-after-hawkish-fed-holdThe Employment Cost Index showed civilian compensation costs rising 0.9% in the second quarter and 3.4% over the year. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% quarter over quarter and 3.2% year over year, while benefits rose 1.0% and 3.8%. The data keep labor-cost inflation relevant after the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% with three members preferring a 25 bp increase.July 30, 2026hawkish-hold-with-data-sensitive-ratesThe FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan preferred a 25 bp increase. The statement described activity as expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained above the 2% goal, partly because of supply shocks including energy. Implementation settings were unchanged, and the Fed continued its ample-reserves policy. Confirmed catalysts include the July 30 H.4.1 release, July 31 Employment Cost Index, August 4 JOLTS report, and August 6 productivity report.July 29, 2026rangebound-with-geopolitical-tail-risksOver the prior ~36 hours (since 2026-07-27 UTC) the USD complex reacted to continued Fed uncertainty—public comments by the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stressing anti‑inflation rhetoric but offering little forward guidance—and to a sharp swing in oil after a near‑term pause in U.S./Iran attacks. Risk appetite softened modestly while rates markets remained sensitive to Fed messaging. Confirmed near‑term catalysts include the FOMC meeting (July 28–29, 2026) and scheduled U.S. data and energy releases in the coming week.July 28, 2026event-driven / pre-FOMCThe July 28–29 FOMC meeting is the dominant near-term USD and U.S. rates catalyst. The Federal Reserve calendar confirms a two-day meeting and press conference, but July is not a scheduled Summary of Economic Projections meeting. EIA reported a 2.0 million-barrel increase in commercial crude inventories for the week ending July 17, and the next Weekly Petroleum Status Report is scheduled for July 29. Items below separate verified facts from conditional cross-asset interpretation.July 27, 2026stable-with-event-riskNo single, market-moving USD development was published in the prior 36 hours (UTC). Primary confirmed catalysts over the next seven calendar days: a Federal Reserve closed meeting on 2026-07-28, scheduled U.S. Treasury financing/auction activity tied to the quarterly refunding, and ongoing monitoring of U.S. liquidity and short-term rate pricing in CME Fed-funds/SOFR instruments. Cross-asset context: oil and equity flows remain sensitive to Middle East developments and recent risk tone.July 24, 2026risk-off / dollar-supportiveMarkets showed modest risk-off into 2026-07-24 (UTC) with official short- and intermediate-term U.S. rates remaining elevated. Near-term focus is the BEA Personal Income and Outlays (includes core PCE) release on 2026-07-30. EIA’s July Short-Term Energy Outlook provides the baseline for oil/gas expectations this week.July 23, 2026late-cycle / data-dependentRecent verified drivers center on the Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 meeting calendar, EIA’s higher global oil-supply outlook and lower price path, and NVIDIA AI-infrastructure announcements. Near-term catalysts include H.6 on July 28, the FOMC decision and press conference on July 29, and the next EIA weekly petroleum report.July 22, 2026Oil-led inflation pressure with concentrated event riskEscalating energy-route risk is rebuilding the inflation premium while markets prepare for ECB, Federal Reserve, EIA, Alphabet, and Tesla catalysts.

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