Daily USD Impact — August 5, 2026

Executive view

• Treasury’s August 5 quarterly refunding announcement is the most important verified development in this edition. Treasury offered $125 billion across 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities, refinancing approximately $96.3 billion and raising approximately $28.7 billion of new cash.
• Treasury expects nominal coupon and floating-rate-note auction sizes to remain steady for at least the next several quarters. That reduces one immediate supply uncertainty, but auction demand, bill issuance and Treasury cash-balance changes still matter for yields and liquidity.
• The July 29 FOMC decision remains the current policy anchor. The next confirmed tests are EIA petroleum inventories, H.4.1 reserve data, payrolls and CPI.

Key drivers — verified facts

• Treasury will auction $58 billion of 3-year notes on August 11, $42 billion of 10-year notes on August 12 and $25 billion of 30-year bonds on August 13. All three are scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET and will settle August 17.
• Treasury expects to maintain current benchmark-bill auction sizes in the coming weeks, may issue a short-dated cash-management bill around the end of August, expects shorter-dated bill reductions during September and anticipates increases across the bill curve in October.
• Treasury assumes a $950 billion cash balance at the end of September and estimates that the Treasury General Account could peak around $1.05 trillion, plus or minus $50 billion, in late October.
• The July 29 FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
• At review time, EIA’s official weekly page had not yet posted the August 5 inventory outcome. This edition therefore reports the verified schedule but no unverified inventory figures.

Conditional cross-asset interpretation

• Steady coupon sizes may reduce the near-term risk of an issuance-size surprise. Auction demand and the balance between coupon, bill and cash-management issuance can still affect Treasury yields and term premium.
• A rising Treasury cash balance can withdraw liquidity from the banking system, all else equal. The market effect depends on the timing and composition of issuance, money-market absorption and Federal Reserve balance-sheet conditions.
• Strong auction demand may limit upward yield pressure; weak demand may do the opposite. The dollar, gold and equities can react differently depending on whether the dominant interpretation is higher real yields, tighter liquidity or broader risk aversion.
• EIA inventory surprises can affect oil prices and inflation expectations. No directional conclusion should be made before the official data are published.

Risks and what could change the picture

• Unexpected changes to bill or cash-management-bill issuance.
• Weak demand at the August 11–13 refunding auctions.
• A material EIA inventory surprise or renewed energy-supply disruption.
• Payroll or CPI outcomes that materially change expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

What to watch

• August 5: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report after 10:30 a.m. ET.
• August 6: Federal Reserve H.4.1 reserve-balance data at 4:30 p.m. ET.
• August 7: July Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET.
• August 11–13: Treasury 3-year, 10-year and 30-year refunding auctions.
• August 12: July CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Methodology note

• Verified facts come from the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, EIA and BLS.
• Conditional interpretations describe possible transmission channels, not forecasts or trading instructions.
• The edition deliberately excludes an EIA outcome until the new official report is available.