USD Impact framework essentials
Start with the dollar
Separate DXY from the broader dollar and identify whether the move is rate-led, liquidity-led, or risk-led.
Use the three dials
Track dollar direction, real-rate pressure, and liquidity stress before reading asset moves.
Keep it educational
No trading signals, no return promises, no recommendations. Framework first, context second.
Learn → Daily → Score → Weekly
Each layer answers a different question. Use the links to move from concepts to current evidence, measurement, and synthesis.
- Learn
Define the dollar, the three macro dials, and the transmission logic before interpreting a market move.
- Daily
Read the verified facts, current catalysts, and market context without forcing them into a forecast.
- Score
Add the systematic weekly cross-asset regime measurement and audit its published methodology.
- Weekly
Synthesize the week from the published Daily editions plus the archived Weekly Score input.
These learning lenses help interpret the evidence chain; they are not a substitute for the Score's published eight-variable formula or source methodology.
One concept for today
A Scheduled Catalyst Is Not a Directional Signal
A calendar tells you when new information may arrive; it does not tell you which way markets must move afterward.
Key takeaway: Use the calendar to prepare for information, not to manufacture direction before the information exists.
Watch: actual release · surprise versus expectations · Treasury-yield response · dollar response · cross-asset confirmation
Open today’s card →A systematic dollar-regime reading
Updated weekly by the USD Impact data pipeline
Measure the regime before interpreting the asset move.
The USD Impact Score condenses cross-asset dollar pressure into a single weekly reading, with supporting regime context and commentary.
Today’s market drivers
BLS reported August CPI up 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.4% over the year. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting is now the next major U.S. policy catalyst, while EIA's higher oil outlook keeps energy-driven headline inflation risk in focus.
August CPI rose 0.4% monthly; core CPI rose 0.3%
BLS released August CPI on September 11 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The all-items CPI increased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and 3.4% over the year before seasonal adjustment. The index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% monthly and 2.4% over the year.
Why it matters: Headline annual inflation held at July's 3.4% rate while core annual inflation eased from 2.5% to 2.4%. The monthly core increase rose from 0.2% in July to 0.3% in August, leaving the policy interpretation dependent on the component mix and the Federal Reserve's reaction function.
Sources:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
EIA's September outlook keeps energy inflation risk elevated
EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook raised its Brent crude spot-price projection for the second half of 2026 and highlighted low U.S. distillate inventories, supporting continued attention to energy-driven inflation risk.
Why it matters: Energy can move headline inflation quickly. Oil developments therefore remain relevant for inflation expectations and rates even after the August CPI release.
FOMC meeting on September 15–16 is the next major policy catalyst
The Federal Reserve calendar confirms the FOMC meeting for September 15–16. The meeting begins four calendar days after the September 11 CPI release.
Why it matters: The decision and forward guidance can change expected U.S. policy rates, Treasury yields, and the dollar, with cross-asset effects that depend on positioning and growth expectations.
Sources:Federal Reserve