Executive read-through
The seven-day USD calendar is led by Sep 4 payrolls, with Sep 1 JOLTS, Sep 2 Beige Book, Sep 3 revised productivity data, and scheduled Fed remarks ahead of it. July PCE was released on Aug 26, not Aug 31. Treasury’s current schedule distinguishes Aug 31 bill auctions from month-end settlements. July JOLTS showed job openings little changed at 7.3 million, with hires and total separations at 5.1 million. EIA’s September 2 petroleum report and BLS’s September 4 Employment Situation are the next scheduled tests. An August 31 Federal Reserve IFDP paper provides structural context on uncertainty, intermediary constraints, and the dollar. Near‑term USD movers: BLS Employment Situation (Aug) on Sep 4; Treasury starts larger long‑end buybacks effective Sep 9; EIA reports a 4.5 million‑barrel weekly commercial crude draw. Labor data, Treasury liquidity support, and mixed petroleum balances are the primary rate‑ and inflation‑sensitive signals. Beige Book (Sep 2) shows uneven growth, persistent service-sector demand and pockets of price pressure; Fed posts a Sep 3 speech by Governor Waller. Near-term market risks: BLS Employment Situation (Sep 4) and Treasury long‑end buybacks start (Sep 9); PPI follows Sep 10. Data could meaningfully shift rate expectations, USD and long-end yields in coming days. August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, participation edged up to 61.6%, and average hourly earnings increased 0.3% on the month and 3.1% over the year. Treasury’s larger long-end buybacks from September 9 and EIA’s latest oil data remain the main secondary drivers for rates, liquidity, inflation expectations, and the USD.
How the news and score fit together
The completed-Friday score was −0.71, a weekly change of −0.07 and a four-week change of −0.16. The regime remained Soft dollar regime. The news brief tracks verified developments and conditional transmission channels; the score measures the completed week’s configuration across eight standardized market inputs.
The three largest absolute component contributions were GOLD −0.344, SPX −0.316, UST_10Y +0.215. The softer-dollar contributions came from GOLD, SPX, WTI, BTC, and VIX, while UST_10Y, UST_2Y, and DXY provided firmer-dollar offsets. The nearest regime boundary was -1.00.
What to watch next
The confirmed forward calendar carried by the published Daily editions includes Treasury begins increased long‑end buyback operations (effective) on 2026-09-09; Treasury increases nominal long-end buyback sizes (operations begin Sep 9) on 2026-09-09; Treasury increases long-end liquidity-support buybacks — effective Sept 9, 2026 on 2026-09-09; BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) — August on 2026-09-10. These are scheduled observation points, not forecasts or trading signals. Watch the breadth of the score’s eight component contributions alongside these events to see whether the completed-week configuration persists, narrows, or moves toward the nearest regime boundary.
Methodology note
This brief adds no new external event claims. It deterministically summarizes the five published Daily USD Impact editions for 2026-08-31–2026-09-04 and the immutable USD Impact Score archive for the completed Friday. Daily summaries are reused as checked in; the Score values, contributions, provenance, and freshness gate come only from https://score.usd-impact.com/archive/2026-09-04/weekly_input.json.
