Daily USD Impact

Daily USD Impact — August 13, 2026

July producer prices were unchanged on the month, but the core measure excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.4%. A 17.4 million-barrel weekly increase in U.S. commercial crude inventories softened the energy impulse, while today's 30-year Treasury auction keeps rates and dollar liquidity in focus.

Published August 13, 2026 · Last reviewed 2026-08-13

Market regimeMixed inflation signals with energy disinflation and Treasury supply risk
USD Impact evidence chain

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    Synthesize the week from the published Daily editions plus the archived Weekly Score input.

Interpretive lenses:DXYBroad USDReal ratesLiquidity stressTransmission chain

These learning lenses help interpret the evidence chain; they are not a substitute for the Score's published eight-variable formula or source methodology.

Highlights

What matters today

high importancePrimary-source verified

July producer prices were unchanged, while the core measure rose 0.4%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July after declining 0.1% in June. Final demand prices were 4.7% higher than a year earlier. Prices excluding food, energy, and trade services increased 0.4% in July and 4.7% over 12 months.

Why it matters: The flat headline reading reduces the immediate goods-and-energy inflation impulse, but the firmer core measure keeps the inflation signal mixed. That combination may preserve sensitivity in Treasury yields and DXY while leaving gold and rate-sensitive equities exposed to changes in real-rate expectations.

DXYU.S. ratesXAUUSDS&P 500Nasdaq

Sources:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

high importancePrimary-source verified

U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by 17.4 million barrels

EIA reported that commercial crude oil inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose by 17.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, reaching 424.4 million barrels. Inventories remained about 2% below the five-year average, while the EIA's cited WTI spot price was $79.77 on August 7, down $6.39 from a week earlier.

Why it matters: The large inventory build and lower weekly WTI price point to a softer near-term energy impulse. If sustained, that can reduce oil-led inflation pressure; however, inventory composition, imports, refinery runs, and future demand data remain important for WTI and Brent.

WTIBrentDXYU.S. rates

Sources:U.S. Energy Information Administration

high importancePrimary-source verified

Treasury's $25 billion 30-year bond auction is today's duration test

Treasury's August refunding statement scheduled a $25 billion 30-year bond auction for 1:00 p.m. EDT on August 13, with settlement on August 17. The same refunding package placed the 3-year and 10-year auctions on August 11 and August 12, respectively.

Why it matters: Demand at the long-duration auction can influence the term premium and the shape of the Treasury curve. A material yield repricing may transmit into DXY, gold, equity discount rates, and broader dollar-funding conditions.

U.S. ratesDXYLiquidityXAUUSDS&P 500

Sources:U.S. Department of the Treasury

medium importancePrimary-source verified

Treasury buybacks provide two additional liquidity operations next week

Treasury's August quarterly-refunding buyback schedule lists a liquidity-support operation in 20- to 30-year nominal coupons on August 18 with a maximum purchase amount of $2 billion, followed by a 3- to 5-year operation on August 20 with a maximum of $4 billion.

Why it matters: These buybacks are modest relative to gross Treasury issuance, but their maturity focus and settlement timing can affect off-the-run liquidity and dealer balance-sheet conditions. They are best treated as secondary liquidity inputs rather than standalone market-direction signals.

U.S. ratesLiquidityDXY

Sources:U.S. Department of the Treasury

Calendar

Upcoming catalysts

high importance · 4/5

$25 billion U.S. Treasury 30-year bond auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT

Why it matters: The long-duration auction can reprice the term premium and transmit into the dollar, real-rate-sensitive assets, and broader funding conditions.

U.S. ratesDXYLiquidityXAUUSD

Sources:U.S. Department of the Treasury

Extra Catalyst Brief scheduled after source verification.

medium importance · 3/5

Settlement of the August 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury refunding auctions

Why it matters: Settlement concentrates cash and dealer-balance-sheet flows from the week's coupon auctions and may affect short-term funding conditions.

U.S. ratesDXYLiquidity

Sources:U.S. Department of the Treasury

medium importance · 2/5

Treasury liquidity-support buyback in 20- to 30-year nominal coupons

Why it matters: The operation may support liquidity in older long-dated securities, although its $2 billion maximum is small relative to gross issuance.

U.S. ratesLiquidity

Sources:U.S. Department of the Treasury

medium importance · 2/5

Treasury liquidity-support buyback in 3- to 5-year nominal coupons

Why it matters: The operation may improve off-the-run liquidity in the 3- to 5-year sector and marginally ease dealer inventory constraints.

U.S. ratesLiquidityDXY

Sources:U.S. Department of the Treasury

Executive view

The dominant cross-asset signal is mixed. July headline producer prices were unchanged as energy and goods prices fell, but the core measure excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.4%. At the same time, a large weekly U.S. crude inventory build softened the immediate oil impulse. Treasury duration supply remains today’s main liquidity test through the 30-year auction.

What changed

Cross-asset transmission

The producer-price mix may keep rate expectations sensitive to the distinction between headline energy disinflation and firmer underlying services. The crude inventory build may reduce near-term oil-led inflation pressure if later data confirm softer balances. Treasury auction demand remains an independent rates-and-liquidity channel: a larger yield concession could support DXY and pressure real-rate-sensitive assets, while firm demand could limit that transmission.

What to watch

Key takeaway

The August 13 setup is not a single-direction dollar signal. Softer headline producer prices and a large crude build reduce one inflation channel, while the firmer core PPI measure and long-duration Treasury supply keep rates, DXY, gold, and growth equities sensitive to real-yield and liquidity repricing.

Verification

Source ledger

4 sources used in this edition.

  1. Producer Price Index News Release — July 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Primary source · 2026-08-13
  2. Weekly Petroleum Status Report — Week Ended August 7, 2026U.S. Energy Information Administration · Primary source · 2026-08-12
  3. Quarterly Refunding Statement — August 2026U.S. Department of the Treasury · Primary source · 2026-08-05
  4. Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations — August 2026 Quarterly RefundingU.S. Department of the Treasury · Primary source · 2026-08-05
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