Official BEA schedule confirms Personal Income and Outlays (July) and the GDP (Second Estimate, Q2) will be released on 2026-08-26 at 8:30 a.m. EDT (12:30 UTC). These releases include the PCE price measures (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) and the Q2 GDP revision — a combined data set that can prompt re-pricing of Fed expectations and U.S. Treasury yields.
The BEA release schedule lists “GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2026” and “Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026” for August 26, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. (Eastern Time).
Sources:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Federal Reserve Bank of New York
BEA’s GDP advance (published July 30, 2026) reported Q2 (advance) real GDP at an annualized +1.5%; the release also reported the PCE price index up 5.1% (Q/Q annualized) and core PCE up 3.4%. BEA lists the next release as August 26, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT for the second estimate and related data.
Sources:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is published in the Personal Income and Outlays release and is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% longer-run inflation objective.
Could re-price the front end and curve steepness — a stronger-than-expected core PCE or an upward GDP revision may push short-term yields and odds of tighter Fed policy higher; a softer print could relieve front-end pressure.
May shift probabilities priced into Fed funds futures; persistent upside in core PCE or materially stronger GDP revisions could increase the probability of unchanged-or-higher terminal rate expectations.
USD could strengthen if growth and inflation surprises combine to lift rate expectations; alternatively, a dovish surprise could weigh on the dollar.
Risk assets could sell off on simultaneous upside growth+inflation surprises (higher yields) and rally on downside surprises that lower market rate expectations; intraday direction may hinge on whether data shocks rates or recession expectations more.
Quick pre-event check (official timing confirmed)
What: BEA will publish Personal Income and Outlays (for July 2026, which contains the PCE price index) and the GDP second estimate (Q2 2026) on 2026-08-26. (bea.gov)
When (exact): 08:30 a.m. Eastern (EDT) on August 26, 2026 — that is 12:30 UTC. The BEA schedule and New York Fed economic calendar list the releases for that date and time. (bea.gov) (newyorkfed.org)
Confirmed baseline (what’s already known)
BEA’s advance estimate (July 30, 2026) showed Q2 real GDP +1.5% (annualized) and reported the PCE price index at an annualized +5.1% and core PCE at +3.4%. The upcoming second estimate will publish any revisions to those numbers and additional detail. (bea.gov)
Personal Income and Outlays is the official BEA release for the PCE price index. The Federal Reserve’s longer-run inflation objective is 2% as measured by the annual change in the PCE price index, making the release relevant to policy expectations. (federalreserve.gov)
How markets can react (conditional, non-prescriptive)
Operational checklist for the release window
4 sources used in this edition.
