Four-week score path
How the regime evolved
The regime classification did not change across the four source weeks.
Persistent themes
What carried across the month
The soft-dollar regime persisted while the score began to recover
The score remained below the −0.30 soft-dollar boundary on all four completed Fridays. It softened from −0.69 to −0.71 by September 4, then improved to −0.68 and −0.64 over the next two weeks without changing regime.
Weekly briefs:2026-08-28 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-18
Gold and equities remained the dominant softer-dollar contributors
Across the source weeks, gold and the S&P 500 repeatedly ranked among the largest negative contributions to the score. Bitcoin, WTI, and VIX also contributed on the softer-dollar side in multiple weeks, keeping the cross-asset configuration broader than a single-market move.
Weekly briefs:2026-08-28 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-18
Treasury yields remained the principal firmer-dollar counterweight
U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields consistently supplied positive contributions that offset part of the softer-dollar pressure. The rates channel therefore remained an important counterweight even while the overall regime stayed soft-dollar.
Weekly briefs:2026-08-28 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-11 · 2026-09-18
Labor and inflation evidence kept the policy path active
The window included July PCE, August payrolls, producer prices, and August CPI. These releases were treated as inputs to the policy and rates path rather than as standalone directional calls, preserving the distinction between verified macro evidence and market transmission.
Weekly briefs:2026-08-28 · 2026-09-04 · 2026-09-11
The September FOMC decision tightened the policy backdrop
The final source week recorded a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. That represented a firmer policy setting within a score configuration that still classified as soft-dollar, underscoring the difference between policy direction and the broader eight-input regime.
Weekly briefs:2026-09-18
Executive synthesis
The four-week window moved from late-August inflation and energy evidence into September labor data, inflation releases, and a new Federal Reserve decision. The news backdrop changed materially across the period, but the completed-Friday USD Impact Score remained in a soft-dollar regime in every source week.
The score moved from −0.69 on August 28 to −0.71 on September 4, then improved to −0.68 on September 11 and −0.64 on September 18. The classification did not change. The completed window therefore shows a persistent soft-dollar configuration that became somewhat less negative in the second half of the period.
How the score evolved
The four score readings were −0.69, −0.71, −0.68, and −0.64. Gold and the S&P 500 repeatedly supplied the largest softer-dollar contributions. Bitcoin, WTI, and VIX also contributed on that side in multiple weeks.
Treasury yields remained the principal firmer-dollar offsets. The 10-year and 2-year Treasury components consistently contributed positively, while DXY itself also provided a smaller firmer-dollar contribution. This pattern is important because it shows that the overall regime did not require every component to point in the same direction.
Inflation, labor, and policy transmission
The first source week centered on July PCE, energy inventories, and Federal Reserve communication. The next week added August payrolls, with nonfarm payrolls up 162,000, unemployment at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3% month over month.
The September 11 source week added August producer-price and CPI evidence. The September 18 source week then recorded the FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%.
These observations describe different parts of the transmission chain. Inflation and labor data influence policy expectations; the policy decision changes the rate setting directly; and the score summarizes the completed cross-asset configuration. None of those layers should be substituted for another.
Liquidity and energy transmission
Treasury’s larger long-end buyback schedule remained an important liquidity technical during the period, while weekly EIA petroleum data kept energy inventories in view. The source briefs treated those channels conditionally rather than as guaranteed directional drivers.
That distinction matters for the dollar framework. Liquidity support can coexist with firmer yields, and softer or tighter energy conditions can alter inflation pressure without mechanically determining DXY, gold, Bitcoin, or equity direction.
What the completed window established
The completed period established three durable observations from the source briefs. First, the USD Impact Score remained in a soft-dollar regime across all four weeks. Second, Treasury yields stayed the most consistent firmer-dollar counterweight. Third, the macro backdrop shifted from inflation and energy toward labor and then a tighter Federal Reserve policy setting without dislodging the regime classification.
The useful conclusion is therefore not that one macro event dominated the month. It is that the cross-asset configuration remained soft-dollar while the mix of policy, labor, inflation, liquidity, and energy inputs changed underneath it.
Methodology note
This monthly report adds no new external event claims. It synthesizes only the four published Weekly USD Impact Briefs for the consecutive completed Fridays of August 28, September 4, September 11, and September 18, 2026. Its score path copies each weekly report’s canonical score.value and regime. Each weekly brief is itself derived from published Daily USD Impact editions and an archived deterministic score snapshot.
Provenance