{
  "version": 1,
  "status": "published",
  "week_ending": "2026-08-21",
  "retrieved_at": "2026-08-26T01:53:07.652Z",
  "observation_policy": {
    "description": "Compare the latest usable observation on or before the completed Friday with the latest usable observation on or before the prior Friday. Every fact retains its actual observation date.",
    "current_cutoff": "2026-08-21",
    "previous_cutoff": "2026-08-14",
    "thresholds": {
      "dollarFlatPct": 0.1,
      "yieldFlatBps": 5,
      "hyOasFlatBps": 10,
      "vixFlatPoints": 1,
      "fundingFlatBps": 3
    },
    "threshold_scope": "Display/interpretation heuristics only. They are not estimated probabilities, optimized trading rules, or inputs to USD Impact Score v2."
  },
  "labels": {
    "fact": "Externally sourced or transparently derived completed observations.",
    "interpretation": "Deterministic qualitative reading of the three dials using the published display thresholds.",
    "model_output": "Separate USD Impact Score v2 output; not evidence that the qualitative interpretation is predictive."
  },
  "dials": {
    "dollar": {
      "direction": "softer",
      "breadth_direction": "softer",
      "confirmation": "confirmed",
      "confidence": "high",
      "title": "Dial 1 — Dollar direction",
      "facts": [
        {
          "id": "DXY",
          "label": "U.S. Dollar Index (DXY proxy)",
          "provider": "Yahoo Finance",
          "source_class": "accessible_proxy",
          "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB/",
          "source_note": "Accessible/reproducible Yahoo Finance proxy for DX-Y.NYB; not represented as exchange-official or a licensed institutional feed.",
          "units": "Index",
          "latest": {
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "value": 98.80000305175781,
            "display": "98.80",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "previous": {
            "date": "2026-08-14",
            "value": 99.66999816894531,
            "display": "99.67",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "change": {
            "value": -0.872875622725322,
            "unit": "percent",
            "display": "-0.87%"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "DTWEXBGS",
          "label": "Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index",
          "provider": "Federal Reserve Board via FRED",
          "source_class": "primary_public",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS",
          "source_note": "Federal Reserve H.10 broad-dollar confirmation inside Dial 1; it is not a separate fourth dial.",
          "units": "Index Jan 2006=100",
          "latest": {
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "value": 118.0628,
            "display": "118.0628",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "previous": {
            "date": "2026-08-14",
            "value": 118.9028,
            "display": "118.9028",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "change": {
            "value": -0.7064593937232799,
            "unit": "percent",
            "display": "-0.71%"
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    "real_rates": {
      "direction": "flat",
      "nominal_direction": "rising",
      "evidence_confirmation": "mixed",
      "dollar_confirmation": "unclear",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "title": "Dial 2 — Real-rate pressure",
      "facts": [
        {
          "id": "DFII10",
          "label": "10-year TIPS real yield",
          "provider": "Federal Reserve Board via FRED",
          "source_class": "primary_public",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10",
          "source_note": "10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield; the primary real-rate observation for Dial 2.",
          "units": "Percent",
          "latest": {
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "value": 2.4,
            "display": "2.40%",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "previous": {
            "date": "2026-08-14",
            "value": 2.41,
            "display": "2.41%",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "change": {
            "value": -1.000000000000023,
            "unit": "basis_points",
            "display": "-1 bp"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "DGS10",
          "label": "10-year nominal Treasury yield",
          "provider": "Federal Reserve Board via FRED",
          "source_class": "primary_public",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
          "source_note": "Nominal 10-year Treasury yield shown only as rate context for Dial 2.",
          "units": "Percent",
          "latest": {
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "value": 4.74,
            "display": "4.74%",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "previous": {
            "date": "2026-08-14",
            "value": 4.68,
            "display": "4.68%",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "change": {
            "value": 6.00000000000005,
            "unit": "basis_points",
            "display": "+6 bp"
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    "liquidity_stress": {
      "direction": "contained",
      "confirmation": "broad",
      "confidence": "high",
      "component_directions": {
        "high_yield_oas": "contained",
        "vix": "contained",
        "sofr_iorb_spread": "contained"
      },
      "title": "Dial 3 — Liquidity stress",
      "facts": [
        {
          "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
          "label": "ICE BofA U.S. High Yield option-adjusted spread",
          "provider": "ICE Data Indices via FRED",
          "source_class": "third_party_via_fred",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2",
          "source_note": "ICE BofA series displayed through FRED. Only the two observations used by this snapshot are republished.",
          "units": "Percent",
          "latest": {
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "value": 2.7,
            "display": "2.70%",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "previous": {
            "date": "2026-08-14",
            "value": 2.67,
            "display": "2.67%",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "change": {
            "value": 3.000000000000025,
            "unit": "basis_points",
            "display": "+3 bp"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "VIXCLS",
          "label": "CBOE Volatility Index: VIX",
          "provider": "CBOE via FRED",
          "source_class": "third_party_via_fred",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS",
          "source_note": "CBOE VIX displayed through FRED. Only the two observations used by this snapshot are republished.",
          "units": "Index",
          "latest": {
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "value": 15.13,
            "display": "15.13",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "previous": {
            "date": "2026-08-14",
            "value": 14.25,
            "display": "14.25",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "change": {
            "value": 0.8800000000000008,
            "unit": "index_points",
            "display": "+0.88 pts"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "SOFR_IORB_SPREAD",
          "label": "SOFR minus IORB funding spread",
          "provider": "New York Fed and Federal Reserve Board via FRED",
          "source_class": "derived_from_primary_public",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR",
          "source_note": "Derived as SOFR minus IORB (FRED series IORB) in basis points. It is funding context, not a standalone liquidity measure.",
          "units": "Basis points",
          "latest": {
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "value": 0,
            "display": "0 bp",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "previous": {
            "date": "2026-08-14",
            "value": -2.9999999999999805,
            "display": "-3 bp",
            "age_days_from_cutoff": 0
          },
          "change": {
            "value": 2.9999999999999805,
            "unit": "basis_points",
            "display": "+3 bp"
          }
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "interpretation": {
    "label": "Mixed / transitional environment",
    "sentence": "The completed week showed a softer DXY reading with confirmed broad-dollar confirmation, 10-year real yields flat, and liquidity stress stayed contained.",
    "scope": "Descriptive interpretation of completed observations; not a forecast or trading signal."
  },
  "model_output": {
    "name": "USD Impact Score v2",
    "week_ending": "2026-08-21",
    "score": -0.7231747772025738,
    "score_display": "-0.72",
    "regime": "Soft dollar regime",
    "source_url": "https://score.usd-impact.com/data/weekly_input_latest.json",
    "methodology_url": "https://www.usd-impact.com/score/methodology/",
    "scope": "Separate descriptive model output. It is not an input to the Three-Dial interpretation and is not a forecast."
  },
  "disclosures": [
    "Dated snapshot, not real-time market data. Observation dates are shown for every fact.",
    "Broad USD is a confirmation layer inside Dial 1, not a fourth dial.",
    "The SOFR-minus-IORB spread is one funding-context indicator and is not treated as a complete measure of liquidity.",
    "VIX and ICE BofA High Yield OAS are third-party series accessed through FRED; this snapshot republishes only the two observations needed for the completed-week comparison, not their full histories.",
    "The Three-Dial interpretation is descriptive and deterministic. It is not investment advice, a trading signal, a probability, or a return forecast."
  ]
}